According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is set to disrupt the market. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which allows users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is poised to become a leading prediction market.
The ability for users to own and profit from the $HYPE token sets it apart from competitors. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.
The geographic landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints in Asia, where its user base is skewed. The contrast between Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi highlights the different approaches to prediction markets, with Hyperliquid's token-based model potentially giving it an edge.