Michael Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, believes that bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and that achieving a new all-time high in 2026 is unlikely. Terpin, who is also the author of 'Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich,' thinks that the price of bitcoin needs to plummet to approximately $57,000 by October before it can begin to ascend.
A market analyst, however, disagrees with this assessment. Despite experiencing a double-digit increase in April, Terpin maintains that bitcoin is still in a downward trend.
His pessimistic outlook for this cycle contrasts with the general consensus among analysts, who believe that the low point in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Most of these bullish analysts point to the renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and the oil price spike as evidence of their outlook. In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours on Monday, with the high price of oil being a contributing factor. He explained that this is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation.
While Jason Fernandes, a market analyst, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been seen, he disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Fernandes said that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, and that the market is not yet at that point.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals point more toward a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. He predicts that this will occur in October, roughly the same timeline as last year when BTC first dipped below $100,000, followed by the October 10 crash, which saw $19 billion in leveraged positions wiped out in the largest single-day event on record. Fernandes added that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, citing tight liquidity conditions and risk assets still adjusting to a higher-for-longer rate environment.
The 'Crypto Godfather' also stated that bitcoin will not achieve an all-time high this year, a view not shared by all analysts. Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst, disagrees, saying that while he is hesitant to disagree with Terpin, his take seems overly bearish, and that given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, a new all-time high seems plausible. Fernandes also said that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that the market may need one more leg down before a sustainable base is formed.