The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique phenomenon where Bitcoin is holding steady despite significant movements in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a minimal 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week. This stability is notable, especially considering Brent crude oil exceeded $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Trump's statement on Truth Social on Tuesday, Iran is in a 'State of Collapse.' However, Tehran has indicated a willingness to accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies have experienced significant losses, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana declining 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. In contrast, Dogecoin saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside of stablecoins to record gains over the past week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, which is a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress arises and capital flows into the largest asset.
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted in a statement that Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. 'The supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' Ebtikar said in an email to CoinDesk.
'Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits,' Ebtikar added.
From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where the upward range that has held since late March breaks, potentially opening room for further downside. A reversal back toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin in every attempt since February. The Fed is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the ECB on Thursday.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have regained 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude has seesawed between gains and losses but remains elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling.
If the assessment is incorrect, $75,000 will be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget will play out as expected.