According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, the key to Hyperliquid's success in prediction markets lies not just in offering cheaper trading, but in capturing the upside. Hayes believes that Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, will be a major differentiator, allowing users to benefit from platform activity in a way that Polymarket and Kalshi do not. With Hyperliquid's HIP-4 proposal introducing event trading, Hayes predicts that the platform will quickly become a dominant force in the prediction market space. The fact that users who own HYPE tokens can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4 gives Hyperliquid a significant advantage over its competitors.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, while Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives. Hayes' argument is that Hyperliquid's structure, which ties usage to a token, will allow it to capture the upside of platform activity, making it a more attractive option for users. With a large user base in Asia, where crypto-native trading is already established, Hyperliquid is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for prediction markets.