The resurgence of the Iran war premium has led to a decline in crypto prices. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has fallen by 2.1% to $75,633, marking a 3% weekly decline, while Brent crude oil jumped 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel, its highest intraday level in four years. This spike was triggered by reports that President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran, including the potential deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked since the conflict began, resulting in a significant reduction in crude, natural gas, and oil product flows. As a result, Brent crude has been carrying a substantial war premium all year, with prices increasing by over 100% year-to-date. The global benchmark is currently on a nine-day winning streak, its longest since May 2022, and has risen by over 100% year-to-date.
Ether has dropped 3.4% to $2,244, with a 4.4% weekly decline, while XRP has fallen 2.1% to $1.37, a 3.7% decline over seven days. Solana has lost 2.6% to $82.62, and BNB has shed 1.9% to $615.
The only top 10 asset to show gains, excluding stablecoins, is dogecoin, which has risen 3.8% on the day and 10.1% on the week to $0.10. Risk assets are experiencing declines across the board, with Nasdaq 100 futures erasing an earlier 1.1% rally, MSCI's Asia Pacific share index falling 1.4%, and European equities poised to drop 1% at the open. The dollar has gained, and bonds have slid, as the surge in oil and a hawkish Fed have reduced demand for fixed income.
Treasury 10-year yields have held near their highest levels since July, and Japan's 10-year notes have reached their highest level since 1997. Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the war is being tested, having held a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 throughout April, despite oil prices rising from $98 to $126 and the conflict entering its third month.
Each escalation headline has produced a sharper drawdown, and the cumulative damage is starting to show. BTC is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 would require the war premium to unwind.
Lillo stated that bitcoin is attempting to break the key $80,000 level, which would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a subsequent drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel. He noted that one is impossible without the other, and the USA administration's plans for a prolonged naval blockade of Iran are becoming a significant obstacle.
Lillo flagged a possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days and frames it as a response to 'positive steps by Iran' to engineer a relief rally. A potential lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could trigger an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.