Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, some industry experts believe it has not yet escaped the bear market that began in October, given that it remains 40% below its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high. Analyst James Check considers such a move unlikely, stating it would be statistically extraordinary, although not impossible.
Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which averages key valuation metrics and ranks Bitcoin's price on a historical percentile basis. At $40,000, Bitcoin would register as a 0.4th percentile event, indicating a price below any meaningful deviation across major anchors. This would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, compared to its current price sitting around the 31.5th percentile.
Check notes that while there's no zero probability in markets, a price of $40,000 would be a near-unprecedented outcome.