The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new record high this year, according to Michael Terpin, an early investor in the cryptocurrency and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather', believes that before a bull market can begin, the price of bitcoin must break above $100,000, but notes that no such support has been seen so far.
Despite a double-digit gain in April, Terpin asserts that the market is still in a downturn. His pessimistic outlook contrasts with the views of many analysts who think the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run.
Terpin's prediction is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, which he believes typically involves lower highs being rejected until the final collapse. Jason Fernandes, a market analyst, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully surrendered yet. Fernandes notes that historically, lasting bottoms tend to coincide with the exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not yet occurred. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom around $57,000, which he predicts will happen in October, similar to the timeline last year when bitcoin first fell below $100,000.
Fernandes warns that broader macro conditions could continue to negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment. The 'Crypto Godfather' also believes that bitcoin will not achieve a new all-time high this year, a view that is disputed by some analysts, including Mati Greenspan, who thinks the market still has room to grow given the level of institutional adoption and interest.