The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note has surged to 5%, its highest level since July 2025, prompting concerns among crypto analysts that rising yields will hinder bitcoin's performance. As bond yields increase, they become a more attractive investment option, potentially leading to a decline in risk assets like bitcoin. This is because the 5% yield on the 30-year Treasury note provides a relatively risk-free return, making investments in bitcoin and other non-yielding assets less appealing. The rise in bond yields is attributed to several factors, including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the recent surge in oil prices, which has pushed long-term inflation expectations higher.
As a result, bitcoin is facing downward pressure, with its price falling 2% over the past 24 hours. According to experts, the current market conditions, characterized by rising bond yields and a strong US dollar, are likely to continue weighing on crypto valuations.
The increase in bond yields is not limited to the US, with yields also rising in the UK and other parts of the world. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, combined with the internal dissent among its officials, has led to expectations of higher interest rates for a longer period, further contributing to the rise in bond yields. Overall, the current market environment, marked by rising bond yields, a strong US dollar, and increasing oil prices, is expected to remain a headwind for bitcoin and other risk assets.