Bitcoin, currently valued at $76,987.97, may face a challenge despite its slight increase. Having gained less than 0.5% since midnight UTC, significant moves towards $80,000 are likely to encounter opposition. According to Luke Deans, a senior research associate at Bitwise, short-term holders have a cost basis around $80,000, which could prompt them to sell and take profits if the price surpasses that level, thereby limiting any potential gains.
Furthermore, the upcoming US March PCE inflation report, coupled with high oil prices, may exert downward pressure on risk assets. The recent surge in West Texas Intermediate crude to $110 and reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to the fragility of energy markets. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate, accompanied by four dissenting votes, has also impacted the market.
Deans noted that altcoins remain closely tied to bitcoin, with a high correlation and beta percentiles of 97% and 99%, indicating that tokens may behave like leveraged bitcoin trades. He also stated that beneath the surface, conditions are forming that typically precede increased volatility, characterized by subdued liquidity and a lack of directional conviction, often requiring price movements to unlock new liquidity.