A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected in June, which could significantly impact the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, seeking to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital pull could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially draining liquidity from the crypto market. As crypto sits in the same liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, a significant allocation of capital to these IPOs could leave less capital available for crypto assets, including bitcoin.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, is also notable, as this capital will not be available for crypto assets. Furthermore, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, with 8,285 BTC worth approximately $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a disclosed bitcoin position under the new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of these developments on the crypto market will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June.