Bitcoin is maintaining its position above $77,000, following a notable surge to its highest level since early February. The cryptocurrency has seen a 13.6% increase in April, putting it on track for its most impressive monthly performance in a year, according to data from CoinGlass.
This rebound comes after a challenging period, during which crypto markets experienced their longest losing streak since 2018, with consecutive monthly declines from October to February. The improvement in the broader macro environment, including a strong recovery in US equities, has contributed to this turnaround.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have regained their record highs after briefly entering correction territory earlier in the year. Additionally, the supply of Tether's USDT, the largest stablecoin, has grown to nearly $150 billion, with an increase of approximately $5 billion over the past two weeks, following a period of stagnation.
This growth in stablecoins, which act as liquidity in crypto markets, is often seen as an indicator of capital flowing into the crypto market, which can be a positive signal for asset prices. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, markets appear to be looking beyond these concerns.
According to Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, 'the equities and crypto markets seem to have stopped caring about intricate headlines on the conflict's direction,' which may indicate a level of fatigue and complacency. De Maere notes that strong corporate earnings and resilient equity markets are helping to offset concerns about higher energy costs and geopolitical risks.
The upcoming FOMC meeting will be a crucial test for bitcoin, which is currently hovering near the top of its trading range. The $79,000 level has proven to be a significant cap, with traders taking profits. Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, notes that this level is structurally important due to the heavy institutional overhead supply just above it. Whether bitcoin can break through this level will depend on the driving forces behind the move and the parties involved in the buying.
If the move is driven by sustained institutional demand, it could mark a more durable shift, whereas a move driven mainly by short covering may fade once momentum cools. The next test will come with the April Fed meeting, which could determine whether the current rally holds. If ETF inflows continue through this event, Haeems believes that $79,000 could turn from resistance into support, opening the door for a higher trading range.
However, if flows fade, bitcoin may slip back into the $75,000–$77,000 range.