Research has shown that a small number of traders are driving the market, but an even smaller group is accumulating the majority of the profits. A recent report by Solidus Labs, a blockchain analytics firm, found that on Polymarket, less than 1% of wallets are capturing approximately half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for roughly 50% of the gains, with each group earning around $8 million out of $16 million in total profits. This data supports previous findings that a small minority of traders are responsible for most price movements.
However, the new report highlights that an even smaller group is retaining the majority of the profits, underscoring a significant imbalance between a small group of sophisticated traders and the broader user base. The report suggests that this disparity may be due to factors such as greater capital, better infrastructure, and more effective execution strategies. Additionally, the study identified signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
While some of this activity may be driven by incentive farming, it is speculated that Polymarket's upcoming POLY airdrop will consider trading volume as a metric for token allocation. The findings of the report are based on verifiable on-chain data, but it is essential to consider the context, as Solidus Labs sells surveillance platforms and has a vested interest in highlighting the need for such infrastructure.