According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. CoinDesk previously reported that Hyperliquid is planning to launch a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4, a proposal that introduces event trading on the platform. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is HYPE, Hyperliquid's exchange token, which allows users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi.
Hayes stated that 'HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure. Users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.' In comparison, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, $POLY, and premarket perpetual contracts are trading around $14, implying a valuation of roughly $14 billion.
HYPE, on the other hand, has a fully diluted valuation of about $38 billion. The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having no equivalent constraints, with its user base skewed towards Asia. The contrast is most notable with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that is built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives, which likely rules out the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is pointing to. This makes it the most direct test of his thesis, as users can trade event outcomes on Kalshi but have no path to the upside of the platform itself.