The 30-year US Treasury yield has reached 5%, its highest level since July 2025, prompting concern among crypto analysts. This surge in bond yields is attributed to several factors, including dissent within the Federal Reserve, rising oil prices, and increasing long-term inflation expectations. As a result, bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, may face downward pressure. According to Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX, 'as long as yields remain attractive and monetary policy stays tight, capital has a real alternative to risk, which continues to pressure assets like crypto.' The rising yield on the 30-year Treasury note makes bonds a more attractive investment, potentially leading to capital rotation out of non-yielding risk assets like bitcoin.
Additionally, the strengthening Dollar Index and rising oil prices are contributing to the downward pressure on bitcoin. Experts, including Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus exchange, note that 'rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have historically pressured crypto valuations by tightening financial conditions.' The recent internal dissent within the Federal Reserve, with three voting officials pushing back against easing language, has also led to expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, further driving up bond yields. As Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21shares, stated, 'the Fed's decision to keep rates steady wasn't the shocker, but those three dissenters calling for a strike on any easing guidance threw a bucket of ice on the market's pivot party.' The surge in oil prices, which reached their highest level since 2022, is also contributing to higher inflation expectations, thereby pushing yields higher.
As a result, the macro backdrop remains a headwind for crypto, with flows favoring yield and safety over volatility.