The recent 15% monthly gain of Bitcoin, currently valued at $77,128.01, has not convinced all industry experts that it has escaped the bear market that started in October, given its 40% decline from its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time peak.
Bitcoin analyst James Check considers such a move unlikely, stating it would be statistically remarkable, although not impossible. Check referenced the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which combines key valuation metrics, including the 200-week moving average and volume-weighted average price measures, to assess bitcoin's price on a historical percentile basis. At $40,000, bitcoin would rank as a '0.4 event,' placing it in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, below any significant deviation from major anchors. This would be equivalent to bitcoin trading at approximately $2 in 2011 on a relative basis.
In contrast, the current price is around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges. Check noted that while there's no zero probability in markets, a $40,000 price point would be a nearly unprecedented outcome.