The US-driven momentum that fueled April's rally is losing steam. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data.
This metric had consistently shown a positive trend from April 8 to April 22, during which time bitcoin rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 and has been declining ever since. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating they are either selling more aggressively or not participating as much.
On-chain data paints a similar picture. The 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss, which tracks the total dollar value of coins sold at a loss across the network, surged to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000. This realized loss is only recognized when holders sell coins below their original purchase price. A reading of nearly $6 billion at $78,000 implies that the sellers were buyers at higher prices, likely between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than a re-entry point, as noted by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.
These two datasets suggest that US institutional buyers are slowing their purchases through Coinbase, coinciding with increased selling activity by holders. With bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric continues to decline as the underwater supply is worked through. The reading has already dropped from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating the seller cohort is diminishing.