According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi.
With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes believes HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market. Users who own the HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The geographic distribution of users also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints in Asia, where its user base is skewed.
The contrast between Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi highlights the different approaches to prediction markets, with Hyperliquid's token-based model potentially offering a unique value proposition.