Bitcoin's Uptrend Faces Challenge from Pentagon Warning on Inflation

As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 threshold, macroeconomic uncertainty has reemerged as a significant obstacle. A recent classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S. lawmakers highlighted the potential for prolonged elevated oil prices due to the complexities of clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil supply route. This development could keep inflation stubbornly high, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to reduce interest rates and creating a challenging environment for risk assets like bitcoin, which is particularly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity. Rising essential costs may also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. Market indicators such as the increase in WTI crude prices and government bond yields across major economies reflect these risks. Despite sustained demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts caution that the current rally lacks broad support in the spot market, suggesting a potential correction if traders begin taking profits while spot demand continues to contract. The market capitalization of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDT, has reached a record high, and speculation in certain tokens is intensifying, with overcrowding in bullish bets. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been rising, with the potential for a bullish crossover in the moving averages, indicating a possible continued outperformance of bitcoin relative to gold.