The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability persists despite Brent crude oil prices surpassing $111 per barrel, driven by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the situation, Iran has described its current state as one of 'collapse,' according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated a willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625.
The exception is dogecoin, which has risen 5.5% to $0.1016 over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to show gains over the past seven days. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, notes that Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure.
'The supply overhang has finally been absorbed, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago,' Ebtikar stated in an email to CoinDesk. 'Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think.
Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits,' Ebtikar added. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a break could lead to further downside. Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices have fluctuated between gains and losses but remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion holds against the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until a fresh catalyst triggers a new wave of selling. If the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level will be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget will unfold as predicted.