A historic stock market debut is approaching, and crypto is part of the same liquidity pool that will be impacted. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of a June listing and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, potentially raising over $60 billion. The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from June to year-end would exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook.
This could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially impacting crypto markets. Crypto sits in the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, and bitcoin, ether, and other majors have traded with tightening correlation to Nasdaq and the S&P 500. When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of what leaves is the same capital that would otherwise bid up higher-beta assets, including crypto.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle. The lesson is that institutional milestones frequently mark tops rather than starting lines, because the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset.
SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation and the company's material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.