According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about who can capitalize on the upside. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to be a game-changer. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which allows users to profit directly from platform activity.
This sets Hyperliquid apart from competitors like Polymarket and Kalshi, which do not currently offer similar benefits. With its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid is well-positioned to become a dominant player in the prediction market space.
The fact that users can own the HYPE token and directly profit from their usage of HIP-4 is a significant advantage. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives. This contrast makes Kalshi the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes on the platform but have no path to the upside of the platform itself.
Overall, the ability to tie usage to a token gives Hyperliquid a unique edge in the prediction market space.