The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique trend where Bitcoin is experiencing minimal movement despite significant fluctuations in the prices of other major cryptocurrencies and oil. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin's price hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over the past 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week.
This stability is notable, especially considering the surge in Brent crude oil prices to above $111 per barrel, triggered by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has described its current state as one of "collapse," according to Trump's statement on Truth Social.
However, Tehran has indicated that it might consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. The prices of other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced significant declines, with drops of 2.6%, 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.3%, respectively. In contrast, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token, excluding stablecoins, to experience gains over the past week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress leads to a rotation of capital into the largest asset.
Zaheer Ebtikar, the founder of Split Research, attributes Bitcoin's relative calm to a shift in market structure, stating that the supply overhang has been depleted and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market. According to Ebtikar, Bitcoin's sensitivity is primarily driven by broader volatility, and since the current trading range is relatively quiet, there is no immediate reason for investors to exit the market.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. On the other hand, a reversal towards $80,000 could maintain the rally structure and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts to advance since February.
The upcoming Fed rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday, are likely to be closely watched by traders. Additionally, the US equity market's sell-off on Tuesday, driven by growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure, has led to a 0.4% rebound in Nasdaq 100 futures during Asian hours.
The price of Brent crude has experienced significant fluctuations but remains elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated during March and April is no longer present, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered.