According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about capturing the upside. The company's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to be a game-changer. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which allows users to benefit from platform activity.
He believes that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure. Users who own the HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4, unlike users of Polymarket and Kalshi. While Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, HYPE has a significantly higher fully-diluted valuation.
The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no regulatory constraints in Asia, where its user base is skewed. In contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi face regulatory hurdles in various regions. The contrast is most pronounced with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that is built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives.
This makes it the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes on Kalshi but have no path to the upside of the platform itself.