The alleged $400,000 insider bet by a Green Beret on a Venezuela raid may be just the tip of the iceberg. A recent report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) analyzed over 435,000 Polymarket contracts and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume, finding that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes win at rates that defy explanation by skill or luck alone. Typically, such 'longshot' bets succeed around 14% of the time, but in military-linked contracts, success rates have exceeded 50% in some cases.
The authors suggest that markets tied to specific government policies, such as military and defense, are more susceptible to information asymmetries, including insider trading or specialized knowledge. This creates an environment where a small group of informed traders can consistently outperform others. The report's findings add to existing research indicating that roughly 3% of traders drive price discovery on Polymarket, while fewer than 1% of wallets capture about half of all gains.
The ACDC report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, with eight wallets sharing about $1.8 million in profits.
The pattern of well-timed bets on military and defense outcomes extends beyond this single event, with winning longshot bets outnumbering losing ones in five of the six two-hour windows before market resolution. The report recommends identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on contract granularity.
Ultimately, the report calls for an evidence-informed debate about whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.