A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June. The company is targeting a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies combined expected to raise over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it may draw liquidity away from bitcoin and other digital assets.
The crypto market has been closely tied to the tech and AI sectors, and a large-scale IPO could lead to a rotation of capital out of these assets. Historically, institutional milestones have often marked the peak of a cycle, rather than the beginning.
The Coinbase IPO in 2021, for example, coincided with the peak of the bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown in the following weeks. The SpaceX IPO has two key features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation and the company's significant bitcoin holdings.
The retail allocation could divert funds away from crypto, while the company's bitcoin holdings make it the first public company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under new accounting rules. The impact of the SpaceX IPO on the crypto market will be closely watched, with a potential test of whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows.