The current bitcoin price of $76,600.23 has not reached its lowest point, and it is unlikely to reach a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a pioneering bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin believes that before a bull market can begin, the price of bitcoin must exceed $100,000, but he notes that no such support level has been reached yet. He predicts that the bottom of the market will be around $57,000, which he expects to happen in October.
Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, founded Transform Group, one of the first PR firms focused on blockchain companies, as well as CoinAgenda and BitAngels. His bearish outlook for this cycle differs from the consensus among analysts, who believe that the February low of around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run. Many of these analysts point to renewed investments in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as evidence of their outlook.
In a conversation with CoinDesk, Terpin stated that during Asian trading hours on Monday, the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected, with the high oil price being a contributing factor. He explained that this is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle, where lower highs are rejected until the final capitulation.
Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached, but he disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Fernandes notes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, and that this has not yet occurred. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, which he believes will be around $57,000 in October. Fernandes adds that broader macro conditions could continue to negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment.
The author and entrepreneur also believes that bitcoin will not reach an all-time high this year, a view disagreed with by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks that Terpin's take is overly bearish and that there is still room for growth this year given the level of institutional adoption and interest. Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.