The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement at just under $77,000 on Wednesday, a mere 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is observed despite significant fluctuations in the prices of other assets, such as Brent crude, which has surpassed $111 per barrel following reports of a potential prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has allegedly instructed his aides to prepare for such an extended blockade.
In response, Iran has signaled its willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies like Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. However, dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase to $0.1016 over the week, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to exhibit a positive trend.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a phenomenon often observed during times of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, attributes Bitcoin's relative calm to a shift in market structure, stating that the supply overhang has dissipated and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market. According to Ebtikar, Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than commonly perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily a function of broader volatility.
With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate rush for the exits. From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February.
The upcoming Fed rate decision, followed by the ECB's decision, and the US equity market's sell-off due to growing skepticism about artificial intelligence capital expenditure, may influence the market's trajectory. Meanwhile, Brent crude's volatility and the blockade reporting are exerting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion will hold against the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered.