The majority of retail investors are predicting that the price of Bitcoin will exceed $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning its year-to-date return from negative to positive. However, it remains uncertain whether the market will follow this trend. According to Santiment, a firm that analyzes social media posts, the majority of discussions on platforms such as X, Reddit, and Telegram are leaning towards a price increase above $90,000, with mentions of lower price ranges being dismissed as fear, uncertainty, and doubt. The crowd is expecting the recovery from the February low of around $60,000 to continue into May, driven by factors such as the return of flows into exchange-traded funds and Bitcoin's resilience in the face of recent global conflicts and DeFi hacks.
However, Santiment warns that this widespread bullishness could be a reason to exercise caution, as overly optimistic sentiment can often precede a bearish market performance. This phenomenon is also observed in traditional markets, where contrarian traders use sentiment gauges such as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index to inform their decisions. Notably, Bitcoin's recovery rally has already experienced a setback this week, with prices pulling back to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday, leaving it unclear whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a broader reversal.