Research has shown that a small number of traders may be influencing prediction markets, but an even smaller group is taking home the majority of the profits. A recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs found that profit concentration on Polymarket is severe, with less than 1% of wallets accounting for roughly half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, just 0.55% of profitable maker wallets captured 50% of gains, while 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly the same share, with approximately $8 million of about $16 million in profits going to each of these small groups.
This data reinforces a trend observed in academic research, which found that about 3% of Polymarket traders drive most price discovery. The report highlights that a small minority is moving prices, while an even smaller minority is keeping the money, underscoring the point that concentration does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather that some traders have significant advantages.
The study also identified signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets showing patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. Solidus argues that the scale of the imbalance suggests a structural divide between a small group operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants, with the report stating that 'the participants capturing a disproportionate share of profits are operating in a different league entirely.'