Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets will focus on capturing upside potential rather than just offering cheaper trades. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 proposal, which introduces event trading, is expected to give the platform a competitive edge. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market.
The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data. In contrast, Polymarket's potential token, $POLY, has a implied valuation of roughly $14 billion.
Hayes' argument also highlights the geographical constraints faced by Polymarket and Kalshi, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints and having a user base that skews towards Asia. The contrast is most apparent with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that is built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives, making it the most direct test of Hayes' thesis.