A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's planned $75 billion IPO drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. The company filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
Furthermore, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with estimated valuations of nearly $1 trillion and over $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raise of over $240 billion would exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting crypto markets.
As crypto assets are part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, a decrease in liquidity could impact bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies. Historical parallels, such as Coinbase's IPO in 2021, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the beginning of a downturn rather than an upswing.
The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto. Additionally, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin holding.
The impact of this event on crypto markets will be visible in the coming weeks, as the roadshow window in May and June approaches.