The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, also known as the 'Crypto Godfather' and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin believes that for a bull market to be declared, the price of bitcoin must exceed $100,000, which he does not foresee happening anytime soon. Instead, he predicts the bottom will be around $57,000, potentially occurring in October. This outlook is at odds with the views of many analysts, who think the low point was reached in February at around $60,000, marking the start of a new upward trend.
Terpin's perspective is based on his analysis of the bitcoin cycle, where lower highs are rejected until the final capitulation. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with Terpin's timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Fernandes notes that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with the exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not occurred yet.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals point towards a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. Fernandes adds that broader macro conditions, such as tight liquidity and a higher-for-longer rate environment, could continue to negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin. The possibility of a new all-time high this year is also dismissed by Terpin, but crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan disagrees, finding Terpin's view overly bearish and believing there is still room for significant growth this year due to institutional adoption and growing interest.