Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid is set to launch a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4, which Hayes argues is only the first layer. The real differentiator, according to Hayes, is HYPE, Hyperliquid's exchange token, which allows users to profit from platform activity. Hayes stated that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, low trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, and that users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and premarket perpetual contracts tied to the potential $POLY token are trading around $14, implying a fully-diluted valuation of roughly $14 billion. HYPE, on the other hand, has an FDV of about $38 billion. The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia, while Hyperliquid has no equivalent constraints and a user base that skews toward Asia. The contrast is also evident with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that is built around compliance and licensing, and does not offer token incentives, making it a direct test of Hayes' thesis.