The resurgence of the Iran war premium has taken a toll on the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has fallen 2.1% to $75,633, representing a 3% decline over the week. This downturn coincides with a significant increase in Brent crude oil prices, which have jumped 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel - the highest level in four years.
The surge in oil prices is attributed to reports that President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on potential military action against Iran. As a result, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February, severely disrupting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products. This development has led to a war premium, where the price of an asset is influenced by conflict risk rather than traditional supply and demand factors.
Brent crude has been carrying this premium throughout the year, resulting in a price increase of over 100% year-to-date. The global benchmark has now experienced a nine-day winning streak, its longest since May 2022, and has risen by over 100% year-to-date. Other cryptocurrencies have also been affected, with ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244 and XRP falling 2.1% to $1.37.
Solana has lost 2.6% to $82.62, while BNB has shed 1.9% to $615. The only notable exception is dogecoin, which has risen 3.8% to $0.10. Risk assets across the board are experiencing declines, with the Nasdaq 100 futures erasing earlier gains and the MSCI Asia Pacific share index falling 1.4%.
The dollar has gained, while bond prices have slid due to the surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed stance. As a result, Treasury 10-year yields have remained near their highest levels since July, and Japan's 10-year notes have reached their highest level since 1997.
Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the war is being tested, having maintained a narrow range between $74,000 and $78,000 throughout April despite the significant increase in oil prices. However, each escalation in the conflict has resulted in a sharper decline, and the cumulative damage is beginning to show. Bitcoin is now $50,000 below its all-time high of $126,000, reached in October 2025. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 will require the war premium to unwind.
Lillo noted that bitcoin is attempting to break the key $80,000 level, which would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a subsequent drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel. He also flagged a potential scenario where the Trump administration lifts the naval blockade of Iran, framing it as a response to positive steps taken by Iran, which could trigger a relief rally. A possible lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could lead to an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move towards $85,000.