The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a pioneering bitcoin investor and author of the book 'Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich'. Terpin believes that for a bull market to be declared, the price of bitcoin must surpass $100,000, but he notes that the necessary support for such a move has not materialized. Instead, he predicts that the price will bottom out at $57,000 in October.
Terpin's views are in contrast to those of many analysts, who think that the low point of the bear market was reached in February at around $60,000 and that a new bull run has begun. Some analysts point to the recent inflows into US-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as evidence of this.
However, Terpin thinks that the current cycle is still in a downturn, despite the double-digit gains in April. He notes that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours, which he sees as typical of this stage in the bitcoin cycle. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached, but disagrees with the timeline.
Fernandes thinks that the market may not have fully capitulated yet, and that historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, which he thinks will be around $57,000 in October.
Fernandes adds that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, and that liquidity conditions remain tight. The author and entrepreneur also thinks that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view that is disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan. Greenspan thinks that Terpin's take is overly bearish and that, given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, a new all-time high is certainly plausible. Fernandes also notes that market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, and that to form a sustainable base, the market may need one more leg down.