The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement despite significant fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability persisted even as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel, driven by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump had instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the escalating tensions, Iran has stated that the country is on the brink of collapse, according to Trump's claims on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated a willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. The market saw Ether decline by 2.6% over the week to $2,310, while XRP fell by 3.8% to $1.39, and Solana decreased by 3.2% to $84.57. BNB also experienced a loss, shedding 2.3% to $625.
The only exception among the top-10 tokens, excluding stablecoins, was dogecoin, which saw a 5.5% increase over the week to $0.1016. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side.
He added that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than commonly perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily a function of broader volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell. From a technical standpoint, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a break in the upward range that has held since late March could potentially lead to further downside. A reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure intact and set the stage for a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have since recovered by 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude prices continue to fluctuate, staying elevated near $111, which may put renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock.
If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling wave is triggered. Conversely, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as predicted.