Recent research has shed light on the disproportionate influence of a select group of traders on prediction markets, with an even smaller subset accumulating the majority of the profits. A report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs has uncovered that on Polymarket, less than 1% of wallets are capturing roughly half of all gains in key markets.
Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for approximately 50% of the gains, translating to around $8 million out of $16 million in profits. This discovery reinforces previous academic findings that a small minority of traders drives most price movements.
The report suggests that this concentration of wealth does not necessarily imply any wrongdoing, but rather that some traders possess superior sophistication, capital, or speed in responding to market information. However, the scale of the disparity implies a structural divide between a small, privileged group and the broader user base.
The study also identified signs of wash trading, with approximately 15% of volume in certain markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. Solidus Labs' findings are based on verifiable on-chain data, but the firm's role as a market surveillance platform provider and its potential interest in promoting its services should be taken into account when interpreting the results.