According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing costs, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is set to introduce a new era in prediction markets.
Hayes argues that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid's HIP-4 is poised to become a dominant prediction market. The HYPE token, with a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, allows users to directly profit from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket's upcoming token and Kalshi's compliance-focused model may not offer the same value-accrual opportunities.
Hayes' thesis is put to the test as Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi navigate the regulatory landscape and compete for market share in the prediction market space.