A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated to take place in June, which could divert attention and investment away from the cryptocurrency space. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history.
Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and potentially raising over $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these three companies could exceed $240 billion from June to the end of the year, a figure that surpasses the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially triggering a bearish trend in the market.
The implications for crypto are significant, as it operates within the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. Historical parallels, such as the Coinbase listing in 2021, suggest that institutional milestones can mark the peak of a cycle rather than its beginning.
With SpaceX's IPO featuring a 30% retail allocation and the company holding a material bitcoin position, the event could have a direct impact on crypto flows. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows or if it will be affected by the massive capital pull of these IPOs.