The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with Bitcoin showing minimal movement. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This subtle movement occurred despite Brent crude oil prices exceeding $111 per barrel, driven by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the rising tensions, Iran has signaled its willingness to consider an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, other major cryptocurrencies such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB have experienced declines, with Ether dropping 2.6% to $2,310, XRP falling 3.8% to $1.39, Solana losing 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB shedding 2.3% to $625. In contrast, Dogecoin saw a 5.5% increase to $0.1016, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience growth over the past week.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is slowly increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when investors shift their capital to the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative stability suggests a shift in market structure. Ebtikar noted that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side.
He also stated that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than commonly perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by wider volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, below which the upward range that has held since late March may break, potentially leading to further downside.
On the other hand, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, and the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday, will be closely watched by investors. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have since rebounded by 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude prices continue to fluctuate, staying elevated near $111, which may put renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Investors will be monitoring whether Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling impulse emerges.
Conversely, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget may unfold as anticipated.