According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is set to disrupt the market. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hyperliquid is poised to become a dominant prediction market.
The HYPE token has a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion. Hayes argues that Hyperliquid's token-based model will give it an edge over competitors, particularly in Asia, where the platform has a strong user base and faces fewer regulatory constraints. In contrast, Polymarket is still navigating regulatory challenges in Asia, while Kalshi's compliance-focused model rules out token incentives, making it the most direct test of Hayes' thesis.