A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's $75 billion IPO expected to draw significant interest and potentially disrupt the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies potentially raising over $240 billion from June to the end of the year.
This massive capital pull could exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000 combined, and crypto sits in the same liquidity pool. The rotation of capital into these IPOs could lead to a compression of liquidity in other assets, including crypto.
Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may not be available to bid up crypto assets. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown. The 30% retail allocation in SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, is also notable, as it may divert funds away from crypto assets.
Furthermore, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a disclosed bitcoin holding under new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of these IPOs on crypto markets will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June.