According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. CoinDesk previously reported that Hyperliquid is introducing a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under the Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4.
Hayes believes that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which allows users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. Hayes stated that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, adding that users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, and premarket perpetual contracts tied to the potential $POLY token are trading around $14, implying a fully-diluted valuation of roughly $14 billion. The HYPE token, on the other hand, has an FDV of about $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data.
The geographical landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having a user base that skews toward the region. The contrast is most notable with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that is built around compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives, which may limit its ability to offer the kind of value-accrual layer Hayes is referring to.
Ultimately, the split between the three platforms is structural, with Hyperliquid tying usage to a token, Polymarket potentially moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely preventing it altogether.