Research indicates that a small number of traders are significantly influencing prediction markets, with an even smaller group reaping the majority of the rewards. A recent study by Solidus Labs, a blockchain analytics firm, found that profit distribution on Polymarket is heavily skewed, with less than 1% of wallets accounting for roughly half of all gains in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, the report discovered that a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets captured approximately 50% of gains, translating to around $8 million out of $16 million in profits. This data supports existing academic findings that a small minority of traders drives most price discovery.
The study highlights a significant imbalance, suggesting a structural divide between a small group of sophisticated traders and the broader base of participants. The report also identified potential signs of wash trading, accounting for around 15% of volume in some markets, which could be attributed to incentive farming or manipulation. While the data is verifiable, the framing of the report is part of a sales pitch for Solidus' surveillance platform, emphasizing the need for monitoring infrastructure in prediction markets.