According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about reducing trading costs, but also about capturing the upside. The company's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is set to introduce event trading on the platform. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi.
With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes believes HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market. Additionally, users who own the HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, not token incentives, which may limit its ability to offer a value-accrual layer to its users.