Bitcoin's Upward Trend Hits a Roadblock with Inflation Warning from the Pentagon

Bitcoin's attempt to break through the $80,000 barrier has been hindered by renewed macroeconomic uncertainty. A recent classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S. lawmakers revealed that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil chokepoint, could take at least six months and will only begin after the U.S.-Iran conflict is resolved. The briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices may remain high through the midterm elections, potentially keeping inflation sticky and limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. This could have a negative impact on risk assets, including bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions. Rising energy costs could also reduce investors' appetite for speculative assets. Market risks are already on the rise, with WTI crude climbing to around $95 and government bond yields increasing across major economies. Despite sustained demand for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts are urging caution, citing the lack of broad-based support in the spot market. The recent price increase is largely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market, while spot demand continues to contract. The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has reached a record high, and speculation in non-serious tokens is on the rise. The ratio of bitcoin's price to gold has been steadily rising, with the 50-day moving average potentially crossing above the 100-day average, indicating a bullish shift in momentum.