A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, and crypto markets are bracing for impact. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019.
The listing is expected to take place in June, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability of a June listing and a 53% probability that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with potential valuations near $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raise of over $240 billion from June through year-end would exceed every venture-backed US IPO since 2000, according to PitchBook. This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially disrupting crypto markets.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles. As speculative capital leaves equities for IPO allocations, some of this capital may also leave crypto markets, leading to a potential downturn.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in April 2021 is a point of concern, as bitcoin hit its all-time high on the same day and began a 50% drawdown within six weeks. The lesson is that institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset. SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holdings of 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.
A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.