Bitcoin Bulls Face Hurdles in Quest to Surpass $80,000

Following a brief surge above $79,000, Bitcoin has retreated to $76,500, halting its rally from the late-March lows below $65,000. Those anticipating a rapid resurgence may need to reassess, as recent economic data does not support a significant bullish push. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index has plummeted to a record low of 49.8, driven primarily by inflationary pressures linked to the Iran conflict. Inflation expectations have also skyrocketed, with the one-year gauge jumping to 4.8% in April from 3.8% the previous month, and long-term expectations reaching 3.5%, the highest since October 2025. This sharp rise could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to signal interest-rate cuts, potentially capping upside or slowing gains in BTC and other risk assets. Analysts warn that the Fed closely monitors inflation expectations, and the recent surge could make it challenging for the central bank to ease monetary policy in the near term. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate between 3.5% and 3.75% this Wednesday. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in a potential Bank of Japan rate increase in June. On the crypto side, sustained ETF inflows are crucial for supporting spot BTC on dips. Coordinated industry efforts to contain the fallout from the KelpDAO exploit have helped DeFi tokens hold up better than the broader market. The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index gained 0.5% over 24 hours, decoupling from the CoinDesk 20's 1.5% decline. Bitcoin's hourly price swings have dived out of an ascending trendline, with prices trading at a discount to their 50- and 200-hour averages, pointing to uptrend exhaustion and scope for a deeper price pullback.