Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets will be driven by more than just cost-effective trading. Hayes noted that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to profit from platform activity, a feature currently not offered by Polymarket and Kalshi.
The upcoming HIP-4 proposal, which introduces event trading on Hyperliquid, is expected to quickly establish the platform as a dominant force in the prediction market, thanks to its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust technical infrastructure. Hayes stated that users who own HYPE tokens can directly benefit from their usage of HIP-4.
In contrast, Polymarket and Kalshi do not offer similar token-based incentives, with Polymarket expected to launch its own token and Kalshi's model focusing on compliance and licensing rather than token incentives. The geographic landscape also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing fewer regulatory constraints and a user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already prevalent.
This contrasts with Polymarket, which is rebuilding its US business with compliance at its core, and Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC and has a model built around compliance and licensing. The difference in approach between these platforms will be a key test of Hayes' thesis, which suggests that tying usage to a token can create a valuable upside for users.