The recent entry of Morgan Stanley into the US spot bitcoin ETF market has been viewed by some as a catalyst for ending the current crypto bear market, given the vast distribution power of the company's $8 trillion wealth management network. However, Blockstream CEO Adam Back cautions that this process will take longer than expected.

Back, an early contributor to the Bitcoin community, notes that while bitcoin ETFs are a significant development, institutional adoption is a slow process. "I think what people may have miscalculated is that institutional adoption is very slow," he said in an interview. "So the ETFs got bought, but when BlackRock is saying they recommend 2% to 4% allocation in their general stock portfolio, the fund managers haven't done that yet.

And they will, but it's slower than people anticipate." According to Back, investors do not immediately invest; instead, the build-up can take up to a year or 18 months. "Some of that stuff is just starting to happen, and it will happen slowly. So I think there's a tailwind," he added. Back is also the CEO and co-founder of BSTR, a bitcoin treasury company.

The US presidency has introduced a new legislative framework for crypto and launched its own token shop, indirectly encouraging other jurisdictions to follow suit. "They've definitely improved the open-for-business framework in the US, which has indirectly encouraged other jurisdictions to do likewise," said Back. The established bitcoin ETFs have the power to transcend administrations, whether Republican or Democrat, as companies like BlackRock and Morgan Stanley will defend their business interests.

Another factor influencing bitcoin's price is its cyclical nature, driven by the quadrennial halving event. Even if this cycle is breaking, there is still the possibility of a price slide due to market expectations. However, this logic will change as people see strength in the market, particularly with institutional flows and investors buying bitcoin directly or shares in bitcoin treasury companies. Quantum computing hardware has also been a topic of discussion, with some claiming it could break Bitcoin's cryptography.

Back notes that while institutions may pay attention to this risk, it is not a significant concern for retail investors. "Institutions are more systematic about risk," he said.

"So if there's a tail risk, even a small one, they want to know that it's covered."